For close to a decade now, there is not a week that passes that I don’t have multiple conversations with buyers, owners, investors about the ‘new airport’.
Well, maybe not in the week between Christmas and New Year – but every other week!
It is, of course, a big thing. A big new shiny thing that has been front and centre on people’s minds for some time.
So I thought why not have a deeper dive into some of the key information.
What is it?
An airport. See, that was easy.
Nancy Bird Walton airport / WSI (Western Sydney Airport) is due to be operating towards the end of 2026.
Construction started in September 2018. The site itself is enormous and sits at around double the size of Sydney Airport (Kingsford Smith).
A single runway (at least for now, capable of handling 10 million annual passengers initially with long term layout predictions estimated to be capable of handling up to 82 million.
At this stage, the plan is to build a second runway by the 2050’s.
Once opened the first runway will be able to support around 63,000 aircraft movements per year and up to 185,000 once fully developed.
For reference Heathrow has around 185,000 aircraft movements per year and LAX is around 500,000.
What’s it all going to cost?
The project, which has been jointly funded by state and federal governments, has a total project cost of around $11 billion dollars.
This includes not only the airport itself but also upgrades and construction of Metro lines and stations as well as new and expanded Motorway projects.
Jobs
During the construction phase, there are an estimated 11,000 jobs to be created.
The last numbers available had around 50% of these jobs residing in Western Sydney.
As things move from the construction to the operational stage there are an estimated 28,000 new jobs to be created.
The broader Western Sydney Aerotropolis which will develop surrounding the airport is projected to generate around 200,000 jobs in various sectors from defence, manufacturing, healthcare logistics and of course the aerospace industry.
From approximately 2.7 million in June 2023 the Western Sydney population will grow to over 6 million by 2041.
Sydney as a whole will have over 9 million residents by 2050.
How will it affect house prices?
There’s no denying the fact that this airport is having significant benefits for job creation, the area as a whole and of course house prices. It has been very noticeable that buyers have been factoring in airport benefits when purchasing property for many many years now.
As the airport approaches the opening and operational stage I do think we will see a correlation between being able to jump on a plane and real estate prices.
How much of a growth in prices actually occurs will also be influenced by other factors such as supply, interest rates, population growth and ongoing cost of living impacts.
Long term even taking a very simplistic view on the matter leads us to the conclusion that having an investment in areas where the jobs are and people want to live will never be a bad thing.
Having a new airport for Sydney is a relatively new experience. It has been over 100 years since Sydney Airport first opened.
Regardless of what anyone claims, we are in fact in somewhat uncharted territory.
However, for the sake of argument, if we compare the new airport to ‘another big event’ being the Sydney Olympics with an abundance of new infrastructure, the data shows us that there are positive trends expected.
Throughout the years leading up to and after the Olympics saw significant growth in prices.
Penrith
1998 +8.9%
1999 +11.5%
2000 +9.6%
2001 + 21.2%
2002 +25.5%
2003 +19.5%
Campbelltown
1998 +8.6%
1999 +8.8%
2000 +11.5%
2001 + 17.3%
2002 +32.4%
2003 +23.7%
Parramatta
1998 +6.2%
1999 +20.0%
2000 +0.8%
2001 + 31.3%
2002 +21.2%
2003 +10.5%
Hornsby
1998 +6.1%
1999 +15.4%
2000 +3.3%
2001 + 26.8%
2002 +16.9%
2003 +14.4%
Kogarah
1998 +14.8%
1999 +19.4%
2000 +1.2%
2001 + 23.1%
2002 +28.0%
2003 +18.1%
Epping
1998 +8.4%
1999 +14.3%
2000 +5.0%
2001 + 19.6%
2002 +21.6%
2003 +12.1%
Opposition
It would be somewhat wrong to only highlight the benefits of the new airport without acknowledging that there has been significant opposition to the project for many years, decades in fact.
It is also true that many local, long term residents, even in the greater Penrith area are concerned about increased aircraft noise and whether their house will be under a flight path.
Personally, I feel that this is a prime example of two things that can be correct at the same time.
There of course will be increased noise, traffic and pollution.
But I also believe that every major city in the world cannot escape some level of change and disruption forever.
Living in the greater Sydney Metro area is just that – living in a metropolitan area.
But I do believe that we can have empathy and understanding for those who may have lived in their property for half a century and are apprehensive about this major change.
Unfortunately at the end of the day, there is never a ‘perfect solution’.
Summary
I’ll keep it short…
Airport = good.
